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OBJECTIVE: How traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are related to long-term blood pressure change (BPC) or trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the independent associations of these factors with 15-year BPC and trajectories in Chinese adults. METHODS: We included 15 985 participants who had attended three surveys, including 2004-2008 baseline survey, and 2013-2014 and 2020-2021 resurveys, over 15 years in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We measured systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), height, weight, and waist circumference (WC). We asked about the sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol drinking, intake of fresh vegetables, fruits, and red meat, and physical activity, using a structured questionnaire. We calculated standard deviation (SD), cumulative blood pressure (cumBP), coefficient of variation (CV), and average real variability (ARV) as long-term BPC proxies. We identified blood pressure trajectories using the latent class growth model. RESULTS: Most baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics were associated with cumBP. After adjusting for other characteristics, the cumSBP (mmHg × year) increased by 116.9 [95% confidence interval (CI): 111.0, 122.7] for every 10 years of age. The differences of cumSBP in heavy drinkers of ≥60 g pure alcohol per day and former drinkers were 86.7 (60.7, 112.6) and 48.9 (23.1, 74.8) compared with less than weekly drinkers. The cumSBP in participants who ate red meat less than weekly was 29.4 (12.0, 46.8) higher than those who ate red meat daily. The corresponding differences of cumSBP were 127.8 (120.7, 134.9) and 70.2 (65.0, 75.3) for BMI per 5 kg/m 2 and WC per 10 cm. Most of the findings of other BPC measures by baseline characteristics were similar to the cumBP, but the differences between groups were somewhat weaker. Alcohol drinking was associated with several high-risk trajectories of SBP and DBP. Both BMI and WC were independently associated with all high-risk blood pressure trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Several traditional CVD risk factors were associated with unfavorable long-term BPC or blood pressure trajectories in Chinese adults.

Original publication




Journal article


J Hypertens

Publication Date





1340 - 1349


Humans, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Blood Pressure, China, Prospective Studies, Adult, Heart Disease Risk Factors, Cardiovascular Diseases, Aged, Hypertension, Life Style, Risk Factors, East Asian People